I used to go to the library at noon every day. 1972 - 73. I liked to read Saturday Review (defunct), Smithsonian, Natural History, and a publication of speeches, essays, and commentary on socio-political events around the world. I can't remember the name of the publication and haven't been able to track it down and really wish I could. It published a lot of "think-tank" work, making me wish I could work for a think-tank. I was able to tank my thinking but that's another story.
One article I cannot forget related to a geo-political analysis of the USSR, which at that time was our major superpower foe spelled FOE! This was a '72 article that Predicted that the Soviet Union would soon become Unstable, very unstable. The article did not specifically predict its downfall but it posited the notion that it would be unlikely that the Russians could sustain the Soviet Union. Here's the reasoning it gave: literally hundreds of ethnic groups that were populating faster than Russia; many of the ethnic groups in conflict that only a major commitment of money and resources could contain; hundreds of different languages, customs, etc. The article predicted major outbreaks of intra-Soviet chaos, rebellion, conflict, and deterioration of civil and political order. This was 1972. The cost in terms of money, military resources (which was already putting a strain on the Soviet Economy), and reasonable solutions far exceeded what could be done. They could not maintain a costly Cold War and maintain order within their own borders. The Soviet Union folded not because of Ronald McDonald Reagan but because they had become a leviathan that could not hold up its own weight. Gorbachev was only too happy to "tear down that wall", which parenthetically it should be noted, placed a major economic strain on Germany, for one. Then consider the inter ethnic wars that occurred throughout the next 20 years. The cost of containing those were placed on the US, UN, Nato, and others but NOT Russia.
One article I cannot forget related to a geo-political analysis of the USSR, which at that time was our major superpower foe spelled FOE! This was a '72 article that Predicted that the Soviet Union would soon become Unstable, very unstable. The article did not specifically predict its downfall but it posited the notion that it would be unlikely that the Russians could sustain the Soviet Union. Here's the reasoning it gave: literally hundreds of ethnic groups that were populating faster than Russia; many of the ethnic groups in conflict that only a major commitment of money and resources could contain; hundreds of different languages, customs, etc. The article predicted major outbreaks of intra-Soviet chaos, rebellion, conflict, and deterioration of civil and political order. This was 1972. The cost in terms of money, military resources (which was already putting a strain on the Soviet Economy), and reasonable solutions far exceeded what could be done. They could not maintain a costly Cold War and maintain order within their own borders. The Soviet Union folded not because of Ronald McDonald Reagan but because they had become a leviathan that could not hold up its own weight. Gorbachev was only too happy to "tear down that wall", which parenthetically it should be noted, placed a major economic strain on Germany, for one. Then consider the inter ethnic wars that occurred throughout the next 20 years. The cost of containing those were placed on the US, UN, Nato, and others but NOT Russia.
For reference I think Gorbachev disbanded the USSR in 1979 if I'm not mistaken.
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